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T reprieve resulting from the ceasefire in Gaza is immense. In Israel, the freeing of captives held alive has led to widespread elation. Across Palestinian territories, festivities are also underway as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees begin their release – even as distress lingers due to doubt about the identities of those released and where they will be sent. In northern Gaza, civilians can at last return to search the debris for the bodies of an estimated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Truce Development Contrary to Earlier Odds

Just three weeks ago, the chance of a ceasefire looked improbable. Yet it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump journeyed from Jerusalem, where he was cheered in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a high-powered peace conference of in excess of 20 world leaders, among them Sir Keir Starmer. The diplomatic roadmap begun there is due to be continued at a assembly in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, managed to secure this deal take place – contrary to, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Tempered by Previous Experiences

Hopes that the deal represents the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, in light of historical precedent, rather hopeful. It lacks a transparent trajectory to self-rule for Palestinians and threatens splitting, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Furthermore the utter devastation this war leaves behind. The absence of any schedule for Palestinian autonomy in the US initiative contradicts self-aggrandizing allusions, in his Knesset speech, to the “monumental start” of a “golden age”.

Donald Trump could not resist dividing and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a time of respite – with the liberation of detainees, truce and restart of aid – he decided to reinterpret it as a lesson in ethics in which he alone reinstated Israel’s dignity after alleged betrayal by past US commanders-in-chief Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration previously having attempted a similar deal: a cessation of hostilities tied to aid delivery and ultimate negotiations.

Genuine Autonomy Crucial for Legitimate Peace

A plan that withholds one side genuine autonomy cannot yield sustainable agreement. The ceasefire and humanitarian convoys are to be embraced. But this is not currently policy development. Without mechanisms guaranteeing Palestinian participation and authority over their own establishments, any deal risks freezing domination under the rhetoric of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people desperately need humanitarian aid – and nutrition and medication must be the primary focus. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Within 60 million tonnes of rubble, Palestinians need help restoring residences, educational facilities, healthcare facilities, places of worship and other institutions shattered by Israel’s invasion. For Gaza’s interim government to prosper, monetary resources must flow quickly and safety deficiencies be addressed.

Similar to a large portion of the president's diplomatic proposal, mentions to an international stabilisation force and a recommended “diplomatic committee” are disturbingly unclear.

Global Backing and Potential Developments

Substantial global backing for the Palestinian Authority, enabling it to succeed Hamas, is probably the most hopeful prospect. The immense hardship of the recent period means the humanitarian imperative for a solution to the conflict is arguably more urgent than ever. But while the ceasefire, the homecoming of the detainees and vow by Hamas to “demilitarise” Gaza should be acknowledged as constructive moves, Donald Trump's history gives little reason to believe he will deliver – or feel bound to try. Short-term relief does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.